A Final Election Post and Forecast

I voted yesterday, and this will be my last blog post for the next two weeks.  I won’t have any more comments until after election day.  It’s not that I have run out of things to say about politics; it is just that my daughter has drawn a once-in-a-lifetime Kodiak brown bear tag, and the bear hunting season opens on October 25.  We will spend the next two weeks sleeping in a tent in the rain, trying to find her a big one.  It's just another one of those Alaska things.

Regarding the election, early in-person voting started yesterday here in Alaska, and I voted. The line was long, but the 47 minutes I spent standing in line was time well spent.  I hope everyone reading this blog also takes the time to vote early or at the polls on election day.  Judging by my experience, enthusiasm is high, and the lines will be long.  I recommend you vote early if possible.

I voted for Republicans Donald Trump and Nick Begich, and for House District 6 Representative Sarah Vance.  I also voted against Ballot Measure 1, raising the minimum wage, and for Ballot Measure 2, repealing the Alaska Ranked Choice voting system.

The RCV voting system can confuse some people, so if you haven’t seen a sample ballot for conservative voters, one is filled out below this article for your reference or to share with an elder.  This sample ballot was sent to me by an individual within the District 6 GOP leadership, so I am sharing it here.  I printed it out yesterday, and my wife and I took it with us to vote. I did not rank anyone, I just voted for the candidate of my choice.

I voted before leaving town for the same reason I am taking my daughter hunting. Americans are privileged to have freedoms unavailable in most other countries. We must exercise those freedoms and pass them down to our children, or we will lose them.  

As far as forecasting the election, Yogi Berra said that predictions are difficult, especially about the future, but I’m going to take a shot.  Here is how I see the election ending up.

1 - President Trump will win the three electoral college votes from Alaska, and his victory will not even be close.  Trump will even win the most votes here in Homer.  Given the coverage in our local Yellow Rag newspaper, you might think Homer is full of liberal partisans.  The truth is that the lefties are a small minority of voters in this little town, and when turnout is high, the city votes overwhelmingly conservatively. 

I predict that in Homer, voter turnout will be close to 70% of registered voters, and Donald Trump will defeat Kamala Harris by at least 2,000 votes, winning in House District 6. His total will be more than 55% of the votes cast.

2—Nick Begich will defeat Mary Peltola. Recent polling shows Begich has a growing lead in the race. Keep in mind that accurate polling in Alaska is almost impossible, and poll results can be used to influence voters. If all the Republicans believe this election is in the bag, they might decide their votes are not needed and fail to show up on election day.  Don’t let the polls fool you; get out and vote regardless of what the fake news local media is telling you.

Congressional Democrats are pumping a ton of money into the race to support Mary Peltola, and she will dominate voting in Bush Alaska. This race is closer than the polls say, and it will come down to a decision via the RCV voting system's automatic runoff. RCV will still be in effect for this election, but it might work against Peltola this time. 

Nick Begich is the sole Republican running against two Democrats: Mary Peltola and another Democrat carpetbagger named Eric Hafner.  Hafner isn’t an Alaskan and has never lived here. He is currently in prison somewhere down south, meaning his candidacy is not a serious one. Hafner is only on the ballot thanks to RCV requiring the top four vote-getters from the primary to be on the general election ballot.  Hafner was moved onto the ballot because Nancy Dahlstrom dropped out of the race. This is yet another reason to despise RCV and vote to remove it.  

Current polling shows Mr. Hafner getting 2.4% of the vote.  In the 2022 general election, that would have amounted to 6,350 votes.  In a perverse twist on her 2022 election victory, if Peltola loses by just a few votes in the RCV runoff, it could be because of Mr. Hafner.  The old expression “what goes around, comes around” comes to mind.

3 – Sarah Vance will win her race, but by a closer margin than the Trump victory.  Donald Trump’s massive support will translate down the ballot.  However, the foolish Republican from Anchor Point, Dawson Slaughter, is still in the race, and his presence will dilute some Republican votes from Representative Vance, potentially forcing this race into an RCV runoff.

Picture courtesy of Freepik AI

 At the end of the day, I predict a victory for Vance, mostly because Brent Johnson is a wild-eyed tax-and-spend liberal. His politics are so far to the left that he is almost a communist. I don’t know what it is about the man; he just reminds me of Karl Marx for some reason. Johnson’s message will not resonate with most conservative voters on the southern Kenai Peninsula. 

4 - Ballot Measure Number 1 - This proposition raises the minimum wage. I don’t believe it is a good idea and will cost young people opportunities as businesses find ways to work with fewer of them. However, I suspect many low-information voters will fall for the hype and vote for it, thinking they are getting something for nothing.

I predict Ballot Measure 1 will pass.

5 - Ballot Measure Number 2 removes Ranked Choice Voting from our state. Dark money groups outside Alaska are spending large amounts of advertising money advocating for keeping RCV.  They must benefit from this form of voting in some fashion; perhaps there is money to be made in delivering victories in House and Senate seats.  I am not accusing these groups of anything unlawful, but they wouldn’t be spending so much money to support RCV unless they can benefit from it somehow.  

I am predicting Ballot Measure 2 will pass.

This is my election forecast. When I return from my trip, I will post an update on how accurate I was and admit where I got it wrong.  Maybe I will even have some pictures of a big bear to share.

Whatever your political views, whether you agree or disagree with my politics, please vote.  It is the most important election of your lifetime, and your voice needs to be heard.

Citations:

https://www.newsweek.com/eric-hafner-alaska-democrat-prison-candidate-1953400

https://mustreadalaska.com/breaking-nick-begich-pulls-ahead-in-newest-poll/